Today we finish the 8 part series to the Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake and possible personal solutions.  I had the pleasure of interviewing Steve Wood from Go Stay Kit.  A great product to help every family on their way to completing their emergency plan. 

Different ways to connect with Go Stay Kit

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If you have an idea or know someone that could help promote this product PLEASE contact Steve.  This is an American product made here in Oregon. I would love to see it succeeded, wouldn’t you? steve@gostaykit.com

Additional Information

Support Military Families

Buy one for your family or friends.  

Disaster Song by Mc Frontalot

Running Time: 1 Hour 11 minutes

Personal:

·Lower your debt. Less debt means more freedom

Teach yourself gardening and your children.

Strengthen your mind and spirit—it’s the best tool you have.

What roll would you play if technology was gone tomorrow? Protector, Healer, Tracker, so on

Get in shape—I struggled with this until I created my garden. Find a buddy, walking group (meetup.com)

Know the benefits of “weeds”. Dandelions, chickweed, so on

Eating Dandelions

Check out my calender for weed classes from John Kallas

Let’s start the ideas:

 Coast

Connect withPaul Wheaton and create a food system inland of coastal cities.

Get a shipping container inland—store items from the money you made at the food system.

Coastal cities need to talk with the closest city inland.

Guerrilla gardening: best case work the city, worst take your chances with the law.

Wave technology was talked about in the official report.

Geoff Lawton  Greening the Desert

Small Forest Gardens (The Survival Podcast)

Recommended: go to www.thesurvivalpodcast.com, click on permaculture—there is a wealth of info.

 Neighborhood level

Get “Friends of Trees, Cascadia Wild and Independence Gardens PDX together—find a way to get people to create a 3×3 garden in front of the house.

Imagine child walking to school and can pick his/her lunch from the neighborhood.

Why are schools asking the Gov. for food, when they could grow their own. Teach the children.

Push to get schools ready for the quake.—If Portland has money for Fluoride (600,000 a year), then they have funds to make sure schools don’t kill 6 yr children.

Visit the local fire department; ask for a small space to put information. Alternative energy, farming, heating, so on.

Linking with Neighborhood associations in vital for community success

Build your own Generator

 Local Fuel:

Listened to a report where people were opening local fuel stations—nothing connected to big corporations. Does anyone know anything about this?

 New Website:

AfterCascadia.org or CascadiaEffect.org

Place to talk about ideas—–Holding place for info

Must be open to all ideas, not just ones government approves of.

Own a Business:

Not every business is doomed. Restaurants can barter with neighborhood. Silver, chickens, food, money.

Blacksmithing will be back in business. Seamstress will be needed. Trades that are thousands of years will continue. I would pay in food for someone to sing bob Dylan songs.

Please remember for 99.999% human history has been a struggle.

What are you waiting for?

Push Past the Denial

Push past the fear, laziness

Stop waiting for someone else or something else to fix it for you.

We are the Ones we have been waiting for.

14 Year Old Creates Program To Reduce Waste by 50% At School Events

The Boy Who Harnessed The Wind

13 Year Old Develops Breakthrough Solar Technology

Thank you to all the Men and Women who put their blood, sweat and tears into the Oregon Resilience Report. You have given us a gift; it is up to the people of the N.W to take care of the rest.

Thank you to Timothy at purebulk.com for encouraging me to start this 8 part series. Let’s get this party started buddy!

Disaster Song by McFrontalot

running time:  One hr and two min.

Today we go over what some of my thoughts are regarding what to do AFTER the Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake.  I am coming from the angle of an unaware neighborhood (which is most of them).   What immediate objectives do we need to get setup to increase are odds of survival.  This is NOT a complete list by any means.  Think of it as a brain storm to help get you started.

Please think about joining CERT (Community Emergency Response Team) or NET for Portland.  IT IS THE BEST GOVERNMENT/CIVIC PROGRAM YOU CAN ATTEND!!  They cover Medical, Search /Rescue, Triage, and Psychology.

NET Resource

Free FEMA training Online

Disposal of Waste 

Get Prepared with Your Neighbors  

Cascadia Region Earthquake Workgroup              

House:

How am I?

What does the interior of the house look like?

Secure a room for my cats (forgot to mention add food, water and restroom)

Check the outside of the house

Try the water:  still on.  Fill up bathtub, sinks, water jugs

Move items close to door

You may hear screams, sirens, ect.  You need to focus on you first.

Check the phones, try texts.

Staging grounds:  schools, parks—look at these locations now.

Will the school stand?

What are the advantages of the park, disadvantages?

Leadership:

• If you don’t step up, who will?  There will be mistakes, learn and move on.
• Don’t default to letting the fireman, police officer be the leader—free them for S+R
• Same for nurses:  let them go hands on
• DON’T FOLLOW SOMEONE YOUR INSTINCTS TELL YOU NOT TO.
• Don’t be afraid to just walk away.
• If you challenge leadership, you better damn well have the credit to do so.

Food Water, Shelter and Security:  Groups of people:  keep around 5-7- leader

Food:

• Food stores, ect.. buy, beg, steal or borrow all food sources.
• First priority:  use the food in the fridge—organize community meals
• Second:  smoke, dry ALL MEAT!
• Third:  who is a gardener?  Greenhouses?  Herbs, wild edibles? seeds
• Fuel:  rocket mass heater are your best friend

Portland Farmers Market 

Oregon Tilth

Portland Permaculture

Wild Edibles   

Learn survival skills

Need help with Building a Garden?

Meat Smoking and building a Smoke House   

Water:

• In less than three days w/out water you will die and/or go mad
• Find those with water barrels—link barrels up to those.
• Know how to disinfect water:  distill, solar, bleach, berkey

Help With Harvesting Rain Water 

Snap shot: Water  

Shelter: 

Try and use those house that are distroyed

Safety in Numbers:  Those that can NOT be absorbed into other houses, should camp together.

What Alternative energy can you use?

Excellent resource for battery power

Go to Source for Alternative Power

Rocket Mass Heater

Disaster Song by McFrontalot

What resources would you add to the list?

Today is the final chapter for my anaylsis. Next week I will bring you an interview, and several podcasts of ideas we can do in the community.

Click here for Part 1: Introduction, maps and fuel

Click here for Part 2: Timelines, Japan, food and Bridges Click here for

Click here for Part 3: Coastal Communities and Critical Buildings

Click here for Part 4: Land, Sea and Air

Click here for the Oregon Resilience Report.The page numbers are the electric (vs. print out) number and not the true page numbers.

Local Roads and Streets

“In addition to local roads and streets, Oregon has thousands of miles of forest roads, and it may be possible to use these for low-volume, temporary local detours in the event of a major disaster. Many of these forest roads are privately owned and will also be subject to significant damage in a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. Nonetheless, such local-road detours will likely serve emergency responders, repair crews, and vehicles transporting food and other critical supplies, and will therefore play an important role as recovery efforts progress and a minimum level of service is restored.” Pg156

Chart of when they would like to be up and running. Page 157

“Analysis suggests that the longer the state delays increasing its investment in bridge and slope strengthening, the greater the cost and potential adverse effects an earthquake will have on the state’s economy. If risks related to bridges and slopes are left unaddressed, the odds grow every day that we will be unprepared for an increasingly likely major earthquake.” pg162

“Several other proposed local alternative routes are included in the Local Agency Alternatives to State Highway Lifeline Routes, a supplement to this Report. These routes will be studied at a later time as possible alternatives to state highway lifeline routes.”      Pg 172

Energy

Oregon’s critical energy infrastructure hub (CEI Hub) covers a six-mile stretch on the lower Willamette River between the southern tip of Sauvie Island and the Fremont Bridge on U.S. Highway 30. This relatively small area in Portland is the site of liquid fuel, natural gas, and electrical infrastructure and facilities; it is also an area with significant seismic hazard. The energy sector facilities in the CEI Hub include:

• All of Oregon’s major liquid fuel port terminals.

• Liquid fuel transmission pipelines and transfer stations.

• Natural gas transmission pipelines.

• A liquefied natural gas storage facility.

• High voltage electric substations and transmission lines.

• Electrical substations for local distribution.

More than 90 percent of Oregon’s refined petroleum products come from the Puget Sound area of Washington State. Oregon imports the liquid fuel by pipeline and marine vessels; it passes through the CEI Hub before it is distributed throughout Oregon to the end users. (One large consumer is the Portland International Airport.) In addition, a portion of the state’s natural gas fuel supply passes through the CEI Hub; and a high voltage electrical transmission corridor both crosses the area and supplies power to it. pg180

The liquid fuel pipeline was largely constructed in the 1960s when the regional seismic hazards were unknown and state-of-practice construction techniques did not include any reference to seismic standards. The regional seismic hazards are now known to be significant, and the soils at the river crossings are known to be susceptible to liquefaction and lateral spreading. The 1960s vintage pipeline design did not consider ground movements from lateral spreading at river crossings or other earthquake-induced stresses on the pipelines that may cause damage and multiple breaks. A break in the pipe would have a significant impact on all of the petrochemical facilities in the CEI Hub and could result in a statewide fuel shortage.pg184

Natural Gas

Oregon’s largest natural gas service provider receives the majority of its natural gas from pipelines that cross under the Columbia River near St. Helens, Sauvie Island, and also between Washougal, Washington, and Troutdale, Oregon. One of the natural gas pipelines crosses under the Multnomah Channel near the gate station at the southern end of Sauvie Island. The soils at these river crossings are subject to liquefaction and lateral spreading, and the pipes are of 1960s vintage. However, natural gas pipelines constructed after the mid-1950s have been found to perform very well during significant seismic events. Oregon’s largest natural gas supplier has the strategic advantage of on-system storage (within the company’s service territory), which would allow the company to provide natural gas service to unaffected customers while any damaged natural gas pipelines supplying the area are being restored. 186

“Recent unpublished BPA Cascadia earthquake scenario studies of the existing transmission line system indicate that BPA’s main grid would require between 7 and 51 days for completion of emergency damage repairs to the transmission line system (Oregon and Washington) after a magnitude 9.0 Cascadia earthquake. This scenario assumes many ideal conditions (for example, that BPA employees and contractor resources are immediately available, all roads and bridges are passable, and sufficient fuel is available), which is optimistic.” Pg188

“Over the past 25 years, NW Natural has implemented an aggressive, enhanced pipeline safety program to replace older infrastructure that may not be as resilient to a Cascadia subduction zone event. The company completed the replacement of all cast iron pipe in 2000 and will complete the replacement of its bare steel piping infrastructure in the near future.” Pg 189

Graph when services could be online. Please take note; this is only if we focus on the problem for 50 years. Page 191

We are almost there, the end is near. Last one hundred pages to go. YEA!

Information and Communications 

“The Oregon coast would most likely experience strong ground shaking for over three minutes. Facilities within the tsunami inundation zones would be extensively damaged; in many cases, they would not be repairable. Facilities outside of the tsunami zone would be heavily damaged, disrupting current levels of service for periods measured in months. Cabling that runs through conduits supported on or in transportation bridges is likely to be damaged or severed completely when the bridges fail.” pg 193 

Water and Wastewater Systems Introduction

Oregon’s water and wastewater systems are especially vulnerable to damage resulting from a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. Some of the inherent seismic vulnerabilities of water and wastewater systems include: 

•  The systems tend to be large and complex, consisting of a combination of pipeline networks serving large areas and concentrated facilities (such as treatment plants and pump stations), with numerous potential points of failure. 
• The systems are highly dependent on other resources—such as power, transportation, chemicals, and skilled staff—to remain operational and to complete needed repairs. 
• The systems are financially dependent on consistent revenue streams to fund ongoing operations, maintenance, and debt service obligations. 
• Essential facilities, such as intakes, treatment plants, pump stations, and outfalls, are often located near rivers and lakes and are vulnerable to damage from liquefaction of alluvial soils. 
• Many critical facilities, such as reservoirs, pump stations, and treatment plants, were designed and constructed before the adoption of seismic design standards that reflect the current state of knowledge of regional seismicity. 
• Pipeline networks include extensive use of non-ductile (inflexible) materials, such as concrete and cast-iron pipe, which tend to fail during strong ground motion.
• Pipelines are especially vulnerable to failure from permanent ground deformation (resulting from liquefaction and landslides), because the deformation causes push-on pipe joints to separate. 
• Water and sewer pipelines tend to be prone to failure at connections to aboveground structures, such as reservoirs, treatment plants, pump stations, and service connections to homes. 
• Water from leaks and breaks in water pipelines and private plumbing systems will cause collateral damage, drain available water storage, and contribute to loss of water supply and pressure, which will in turn result in a loss of fire protection capability. 
• The performance of gravity sanitation and storm sewers depends on accurate grades and slopes, which are disrupted by ground displacement resulting from liquefaction. 
• Failures of storm sewers can contribute to localized flooding during even minor rain events, resulting in collateral damage. Page 217 

There is a great statement on pg 218 and the following pages have pictures of broken pipes.

Water for Fire Suppression

In the current state of readiness, existing water systems would experience extensive leaks and breaks in water supply pipelines. These leaks, coupled with loss of water supply facilities, such as treatment plants and pump stations, would drain the water systems. This loss of volume and pressure would critically limit the availability of water supply for conventional urban firefighting: fire hydrants would be rendered useless, and many fire sprinkler systems would be inoperable (even those sprinkler systems that remain intact).  Pg221

 J:  This is a VERY powerful statement!  If the fuel is gone and the water is gone, how do we fight the fires?!?

Potable Water Supplies

• In the current state of readiness, water utilities would be unable to provide water from the existing distribution system. Communities would rely on emergency supplies for the first one to two weeks, depending on location and on the condition of transportation infrastructure. Some areas would have no water supplies during that time. Water for healthcare facilities such as hospitals would be severely restricted. Emergency water supplies would meet only subsistence needs (for example, direct consumption and very limited bathing). For the first one to two months, water would be delivered via tankers to smaller tanks and bladders distributed throughout the community. People would wait in line to fill their containers and then carry the water home. Some water would come from portable water treatment units provided by the military, equipment suppliers, and foreign countries; however, the quantity of water supplied from those resources would be small compared to demands. Photos of water distribution following other earthquakes are presented in Figures 8.11–8.13.  pg223

 In areas where the potable water system is still functioning, wastewater would be generated and discharged into rivers, streams, and lakes. Rivers would quickly become polluted with wastewater solids, as they were prior to the advent of treatment plants in the first half of the twentieth century. Water treatment plants that draw raw water from contaminated rivers would likely become compromised or would require extraordinary measures, such as operating at very low treatment rates and high dosing rates for treatment chemicals.  Pg 227 

J:  Please visit PHLUSH.com for how to take care of your waste.  DON’T USE water to flush a toilet; you will need that water to live.   

Anticipated Seismic Hazards

A number of seismic hazards other than shaking and ground motion are associated with a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake.

• Liquefaction: Liquefaction occurs when shaking during the seismic event causes a temporary increase in ground water pressure—the result is a loss of soil bearing capacity. Liquefaction can cause structures to settle and pipe connections to shear. The probability of liquefaction occurring is medium to high in the valley as well as in portions of the coast. In the valley, areas such as those near Forest Grove, McMinnville, Albany, Woodburn, and along the Columbia River, have the highest risk of liquefaction. Along the coast, areas such as Astoria, Tillamook, Waldport, Florence, and Coos Bay have the highest risk of liquefaction.
• Landslides: The likelihood of permanent ground deformation due to landslides is high to very high for the coast and generally low for the valley and central/eastern zones.  Pg 241 

“Begin aggressive public information efforts to re-set public expectations for a realistic response time. Local governments should consider using local and state planning processes and tools to integrate seismic resilience into their community development and hazard preparation policies.”

• • The old guideline of having a 72-hour emergency survival kit falls far short of the anticipated needs given the extensive impacts of a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. Even if basic supplies could be readily and broadly dispersed, it would likely take more than three days to achieve that dispersal, and emergency supplies would still fall short of what many people need to avoid deteriorating health (for example, medications, medical equipment, and ongoing healthcare support). There is clear value in members of the public having robust emergency supplies. In many areas, subsistence levels of food and water may be available within a week, but the public should be advised that response will take much more than 72 hours, and recovery times will likely be measured in months. This is especially important in coastal communities where response times could be measured in weeks, and recovery times could be measured in years. pg 248

This ends my anaysis of the report.  There are about 30 pages of powerslides, letter and such.  I recommend that everyone should read the full report and not rely on what I have outlined here. 

I want to THANK every single person involved with this report.  All of the volunteers and the experts.  All of those in government that pushed to make this report happen.  Thank you to all of those that will take this report to champion your cause to futher strengthen Oregon’s Resiliance.  We are all in this together.

The next one hundred pages will be in article form.  I will draw out the important parts, and may comment of a few. 

Click here for the Oregon Resilience Plan

The page numbers are the electric (vs. print out) number and not the true page numbers.

Bridges

•  Our knowledge of the locations of faults and the geological history of major events in Oregon is      very recent. Although Oregon has low seismicity in comparison to California and Washington, there is potential for less frequent—but much larger and more damaging—earthquakes than the crustal earthquakes that have occurred regularly in those states. Oregon has not yet seen the effect of a large damaging earthquake, and ODOT has so far expended minimal resources on  seismic retrofitting. As a result, much of Oregon’s highway system will not be usable immediately after a major seismic event. Pg 125

 Great photos of bridge damage on pages 127 through 130

The World has Not Seen

“Oregon, or even the entire nation, has never witnessed a disaster of this magnitude in modern history; therefore, we can only speculate about how this event will impact Oregonians.”

 “There will not be enough firefighters to assist every household or business, nor enough medical staff to help every injured person, nor enough police officers to go door to door reminding people to be calm and quickly move to higher ground to avoid the oncoming tsunami.” Page 130

Coastal Area Impacts

 “Coastal residents have been advised to get away from the shore on foot, but tourists and commercial travelers are not likely to know that.” Pg 131

 For most of Oregon’s coastal cities, U.S. 101 serves as the main route to other destinations. Unfortunately, after a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake, most of this route will be impassable. Most bridges carrying U.S. 101 were not designed for seismic loading and will suffer major damage under the expected ground shaking. Many other bridges, if they survive the shaking itself, will be washed away by the tsunami. In addition to the bridge damage, many highway segments are expected to become heavily damaged and impassible due to landslides. The latest assessment of state-owned bridges in Oregon shows that of 135 total bridges carrying U.S. 101, 56 bridges are expected to collapse, and 42 bridges will be heavily damaged. Some of these bridges are signature bridges and registered as historic.  Pg 131

 J;  I hope you have a good pair of walking shoes.  PAGE 132 VERY IMPORTANT CHART!!!

“Because of the terrain these highways were built on, many of them lack options for detouring traffic around a bridge that collapses. The situation can become even more critical if the earthquake strikes during winter, when many of the state’s secondary routes experience seasonal closure.” Pg 132

Interstate 5 and Mid-Willamette Valley Impacts

“From a total of 348 bridges carrying both northbound and Transportation southbound traffic, five bridges are expected to collapse and 19 bridges to be heavily damaged during the Cascadia subduction zone event.”  Pg 133

Coastal Area: Impacts from Landslides and Rockfalls

“Currently, 526 known unstable slopes directly affect U.S. 101. Many of these slides will fail catastrophically during the primary earthquake, while many others will fail during or soon after the tsunami. Slopes that do not immediately fail during the primary seismic event will be destabilized to varying degrees and may fail soon after, either during strong aftershocks or else at some time during the rescue and recovery efforts.” Pg 141

Interstate 5 and Mid-Willamette Valley: Impacts from Landslides and Rockfalls

•  In all, there are 49 known landslide and rockfall areas along I-5. Other unstable areas are suspected. In the event of a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake, therefore, the most important route in the state will not be without problems. Many of the slides through the Willamette Valley are minor and can be readily mitigated. Most of the slides in the Portland area have been treated, but some could result in lengthy repairs and service disruption. For the Portland area, adequate detours exist in areas that are not as vulnerable to landslides, but delays will occur. The greatest       concern for this route is the mountainous areas of southern Oregon. Unfavorable geology—in terms of geologic structure, materials, and groundwater—has formed some very large, complex landslides in this area. These slides have the capacity to cut this route off on the southern end for many weeks while repairs take place or detours are constructed. Pg 142

Page 143 is a good snapshot of bridges, highways, and tunnels

 Air Transportation

“The state of Oregon has an extensive aviation system that provides valuable transportation options for the public, ranging from small airports in remote regions of the state to large commercial service airports. Ninety-seven public-use airports provide support to the economic health and vitality of Oregon and contribute to the quality of life for its citizens and visitors.”

 • Fifty-seven public-use airports are partially supported by FAA and included in the National Plan of Integrated Airport System (NPIAS).

• Sixteen public-use airports are either owned by other municipalities or are privately owned.

• Over 400 private airports and landing strips are located within Oregon.

Page 145

 “During the emergency response, for example, displaced residents, injured people, and the elderly may need to be evacuated by means of airports; and airports will also provide a staging area for needed supplies (such as water, food, medical supplies, and materials for temporary housing). Until highway and rail transportation can be fully restored, air transportation, along with ships off the coast, will be the lifelines for Oregon’s citizens.” Pg 146

Page 148 is a map of the airports.

 Columbia and Willamette Navigation Channels

 “A Cascadian event could significantly impact the river system and shipping channels. The jetty at the month of the Columbia is susceptible to severe damage from significant seismic event and tsunami. Failure of the jetties would significantly impact the channel. The channel depth at the mouth would likely be severely constrained due to sands migrating in from the beaches adjacent to the jetties. Additionally, the navigability of the Columbia River Bar would be difficult and unsafe for many vessels.” Pg 148

In addition, the pile dike systems along the river, which are intended to prevent sediments

•  From migrating into the channel, are susceptible to failure during a major seismic event. Significant failures could dramatically impact the hydrology of the Columbia River. Depending on the seismic impact, deep-draft ships that are in transit in the waterway could become stuck due to a sudden shifting of material: This shift would cause the navigation channel to become shallower, cutting off navigation by other vessels and endangering the ships themselves. Additionally, structures that collapse into the navigation channel would need to be removed to allow ships to pass safely. Initially, shallow-draft barges may be the only viable option to move material and goods to and from marine terminals; or ship calls will be diverted to other,      unaffected ports and regions. Marine terminals near the coast will also be exposed to the effects of tsunami waves, which could severely impact dock structures and support facilities. Timely restoration of the channel to resume current shipping operations is dependent upon the availability of dredges and federal funding authorizations. Pg 149

Page 150 is the map of docks in Oregon/Washington

 “In other words, the elevation of the shoreline is expected to drop during the earthquake and just before the first tsunami waves arrive.”    Pg 151

COASTAL PORTS

 “Waterborne rescue and recovery operations may have to be provided through coastal ports; this may be the only viable option for many of Oregon’s coastal communities if highway corridors fail. So even though the infrastructure of many coastal ports may be devastated, their very locations will have to serve as landing sites for waterborne support (from barge, amphibious, and shipping operations). Temporary facilities provided by barges and cranes may be used to restore makeshift docks quickly for rescue and recovery operations, as was experienced in Haiti. Functionality for commerce would take longer.”  Pg 152

Public Transit Services

“Transit providers are generally located on Oregon’s lifeline routes. While this means that transit agencies are well placed to be able to assist with response and recovery activities, it also means that the transit system is dependent on local roads and highways and cannot respond if roads are impassable. Once roadways are cleared for minimum critical vehicle travel, public transit vehicles may be deployed by emergency command for the purposes of evacuating residents and transporting relief personnel.”  Pg 155

• The importance of the human factor in recovery activities following a major emergency is often underrated. Public transit is dependent on drivers, mechanics, dispatchers, and supervisors all working together to maintain and support daily operations. Some transit drivers are volunteers. Personnel must first be able to get to central agency locations, where both vehicle and communication assets must be operable, in order to provide public services. This also means there must be a way for these men and women to know that their families and loved ones are safe while  they return to work. Although some emergency response personnel, such as firefighters and National Guard troops, do have commercial driver’s licenses, they are generally not accustomed to driving buses, nor are they necessarily familiar with local streets and routes. Most importantly, drivers for demand-response transit services know where the vulnerable populations in their communities reside, which can be critical to saving lives in the hours and days immediately following a catastrophic event. Pg 155

That wraps up part 4.  Tomorrow will be part 5. 

Below you can find Part 1 and 2.

The page numbers are the electric (vs. print out) number and not the true page numbers.

Today we focus on the Coastal Communities and Critical buildings.  Such as schools, government buildings and hospitals.

Picture of Seaside pg72

Click here for the link to the Oregon Resilience Plan. These podcast are based off that report.

Coastal Communities

“The vulnerability of coastal communities to tsunami hazards varies, with the most concentrated

exposure being on the northern Oregon coast (as indicated in Figure 3.3). Within the tsunami inundation zone, practically all of the 22,000 permanent residents — along with an equal or greater number of second home owners — who survive the tsunami will be instantly displaced (Wood, 2007).

The visitor population presents a great challenge, because visitors tend to congregate in the tsunami inundation zone and have the least knowledge of where and how to evacuate. Moreover, those that survive will put extreme pressure on local relief efforts, which must provide for their initial welfare.” pg73

Graph of Land in Danger Zone Pg 75

Structures

“Well-built wood frame buildings will withstand the shaking fairly well. Unreinforced masonry (URM) and under – reinforced concrete buildings will suffer significant damage. Unfortunately, this includes a number of government buildings and essential facilities in the coastal zone. Because subduction zone earthquakes generate long -period seismic waves and because the duration of the shaking is so long, certain structures, such as bridges, may resonate, amplifying shaking impacts.” pg76

Map of Tsunami Evacuation Map for Tillamook page 79

Protecting Building and Infrastructure

“As Wood’s study shows, the vulnerabilities of communities within the tsunami zone vary, so the solutions must vary accordingly (Wood 2007). Mitigation proposals should be developed that include actual mitigation projects— such as relocation —as well as more land -use related solutions that look at rebuilding communities after the earthquake and tsunami so that they are tsunami-ready for future events.” pg 80

 Disaster Resilience and Sustainability

•  Wave, wind, and solar as models for economic growth, improved emergency self-reliance, and less dependency on a tourism-based economy.

•   The proposed energy generation plant, if it is accepted, for a Coos Bay LNG facility. This plant could have value after a Cascadia subduction zone event if it is located outside of the tsunami zone.·         Investment early in infrastructure redundancy and alternative local sources of energy for areas that will someday need to be rebuilt and relocated due to catastrophic earthquake and tsunami damage. Such investment can have dual benefits: minimizing disaster -related downtime and encouraging sustainable community development. (Example: The Smart Grid concept http://www.smartgrid.gov/ to invest in alternative local/regional electricity generation and (distribution.)  pg89

 Graph How long to get up and running pg 100

Click here for Part 1:Introduction, maps and fuel

Today we go over the timeline of past great earthquakes, link between Japan and Oregon, Infrastructure/Risk.  The page numbers are the electric (vs. print out) number and not the true page numbers.

Oregon Resilience Plan—please click and follow along.

 Intro:

“Oregon’s buildings, transportation network, utilities and population are simply not prepared for such an event. Were it to occur today, thousands of Oregonians would die, and economic losses would be at least $32 billion.” Pg 26

 Intervals of Great Quakes

The time interval between previous earthquakes has varied from a few decades to many centuries, but most of the past intervals have been shorter than the 313 years since the last event. It is simply not scientifically feasible to predict, or even estimate. when the next Cascadia earthquake will occur, but the calculated odds that a Cascadia earthquake will occur in the next 50 years range from 7-15 percent for a great earthquake affecting the entire Pacific Northwest to about 37 percent for a very large earthquake affecting southern Oregon and northern California. Pg 30

The simulation shows that Oregon would experience shaking very similar to the shaking that northern Japan endured in 2011. As indicated in Figure 1.4, areas along Oregon’s coast would experience severe to violent shaking, while cities along the I-5 corridor would experience strong or very strong shaking. East of the Cascades, shaking would be light to moderate. In all areas, the strong shaking would last from two to four minutes. Pg 31

Oregon’s Infrastructure and Risk

This means that the majority of buildings in Oregon have not been designed to resist the shaking from a magnitude 9.0 Cascadia earthquake. This widespread vulnerability of Oregon’s buildings is grimly illustrated in the Statewide Seismic Needs Assessment completed by the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI) in 2007.pg38

Of the 2,567 highway bridges in the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) system, 982 were built without seismic considerations, and of the rest, only 409 were designed specifically with consideration of Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes.

GREATER RESILIENCE MEANS FEWER INTERRUPTIONS OF NORMAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

“In 2011, Oregon’s economy produced nearly $195 billion in goods and services (US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts). The state’s firms and agencies employed over 2.2 million people who earned over $104 billion in compensation (Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts). While these workers produced goods and services in a wide variety of industries (including agriculture, logging, wood products manufacturing, computer and electronics manufacturing, metals manufacturing, company management, and tourism), every industry depends on various factors that could be disrupted by a Cascadia event.” pg 45

“Because stores are routinely resupplied several times each week, the amount of food actually held in an individual store is probably no more than what is required to supply the surrounding neighborhood for a few days. In particular, fresh fruits, vegetables, and dairy products are typically replenished several times a week, so the quantities kept in stock are not large. With supplies already limited, a related concern is that people will hoard food out of fear that stores will run out completely. In the near term, such hoarding will exacerbate the erosion of the food supply.” pg 55

“Before a business can reopen following a Cascadia earthquake, the building it occupies has to be certified to be structurally safe, it has to be served by municipal and private utilities and the communications  infrastructure must be operating. A business that cannot reopen within a month of a major earthquake or other disaster resulting in extended service disruption will likely never reopen at its previous location”                                 (see Figure2.10).page 58

“If a Cascadia earthquake occurs during the workday (a one in three chance), workers will be in their offices or industrial plants during the event. In areas of the state where the Willamette River bisects the cities — Portland, Salem, Albany, Corvallis/Lebanon, and Eugene/Springfield —it is likely that a large number of workers will be trapped on the “wrong side” of the river.” page 62

Disaster song by Mc Frontalot

What is it?

Oregon Resilience Plan

Intro:

:”For more than 300 years, a massive geological fault off America’s northwest coast has lain dormant. Well into that interval, Meriwether Lewis and William Clark journeyed to the mouth of the Columbia River and returned to Washington, D.C. to tell the new United States about what came to be known as the Oregon Country. Tens of thousands of settlers crossed the Oregon Trail to establish communities throughout the Willamette Valley, in coastal valleys, and beside natural harbors. With the provisional government established in 1843 followed by statehood in 1859, the modern history of Oregon began. Industries rose and fell, cities and towns grew . . . and still the fault lay silent.” Page 9

Map of Impact Zone Pg 15

Intervals of earthquake activity

“The Cascadia Earthquake Scenario Task Group (Chapter One) reviewed current scientific research to  develop a detailed description of the likely physical effects of a great (magnitude 9.0) Cascadia subduction zone earthquake and tsunami, providing a scenario that other task groups used to assess impacts on their respective sectors.” pg 17

Map of Critical buildings in Japan Pg 18 

Key Findings Oregon is far from resilient to the impacts of a great Cascadia earthquake and tsunami today. Available studies estimate fatalities ranging from 1,250 to more than 10,000 due to the combined effects of earthquake and tsunami, tens of thousands of buildings destroyed or damaged so extensively that they will require months to years of repair, tens of thousands of displaced households, more than $30 billion in direct and indirect economic losses (close to one-fifth of Oregon’s gross state product), and  more than one million dump truck loads of debris. A particular vulnerability is Oregon’s liquid fuel supply. Oregon depends on liquid fuels transported into the state from Washington State, which is also vulnerable to a Cascadia earthquake and tsunami. Once here, fuels are stored temporarily at Oregon’s critical energy infrastructure hub, a six-mile stretch of the lower Willamette River where industrial facilities occupy liquefiable riverside soils. Disrupting the transportation, storage, and distribution of liquid fuels would rapidly disrupt most, if not all, sectors of the economy critical to emergency response and economic recovery.

Time Line to get things up and running   Pg 22

Disaster by Kopecky Family Band

I am starting my first contest for the month of April: I will include Bear Grylls season 2 dvd and some seeds to the winner.

How to win: The person who interacts on my website, facebook and twitter account the most wins. No points, no fuss, very simple.

Making a meaningful comment on the website is the best way to get my attention. Sharing facebook posts, comments and likes is secondary. and last is retwitting one of my twitter post.

The MORE people interact, the BETTER the prizes will get. and the chance that more than one person can win.

Earthquakes:

Pacific Threat

Earthquake Prediction System  by Suspicious0bservers 

PBEM tour: Portland’s new emergency coordination center.

 Internet

Protect yourself on the Net

Is Somebody Watching Me 

Fireball

Exploding Firball observed in Japan, Russia, Cuba  

Meteor Lights up Night Sky over Eastern USA 

Four Asteroids in a Week 

Passing by Meteor Campos, in Rio, is confirmed by astronomer

Florida – Large RADAR returns over 1000+ Sq. Miles .

ICE:

The Next Ice Age – An Introduction to a Possible Shift Soon.

 Money

The Invention of Money: 

Disasters around the globe

 Signs Of Change The Past Week Or So March 2013 Part 4 

Free Online Education:

How Free Online Courses Are Changing Traditional Education  

Threat Journal:

Spy’s in NASA

Volcanoes:

Cool facts about volcanoes  

Water:

30 Facts About The Coming Water Crisis That Will Change The Lives Of Every Person On The Planet 

 Garden:    

Secret To Buying Bulk Seeds – Non GMO Crops / Natural Farming Seeds!!. 

Boom( what ! ):

Mysterious Booms Investigation New York News Feb. 27th 2013

Added Information

Washington Slides Away

Disaster Song by Mc Frontalot